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New estimates of housing demand and need in England, 2011 to 2031

Download 'New estimates of housing demand and need in England, 2011 to 2031

The first analysis of the Census 2011 and its impact on household formation has been published this September 2013 by the TCPA and shows that the scale of housing need and demand continues to significantly outstrip supply.

The report, ‘New estimates of housing demand and need in England, 2011 to 2031’, by the renowned housing academic, Dr Alan Holmans, from the Cambridge Centre for Housing and Planning Research at Cambridge University, shows that housing requirements are on average around 240,000 – 245,000 per year, with around 60% of all demand and need in the four southern regions. This is up to 10,000 more homes per year than the generally used 235,000 figure; while house-building levels are slowing rising from their lowest levels since the 1920s, at around 100,000 per year.

Other headline findings include:

1. National demand and need

The analysis presented in this paper suggests that, even if the economy remains depressed and household formation rates remain low, there will still be almost a 20% increase in the number of households over the 20-year period to 2031. This is mainly because of the expected continued growth in population. The projections in the report, together with adjustments for gains, losses and vacancies in stock, suggest that over 240,000 additional homes will be required to meet newly arising demand and need. 

2. Type of household demand and need

There was an abrupt break with longer term trends in household formation in England between 2001 and 2011. To take the most obvious example, the number of one-person households in 2011 according to the Census was nearly one million lower than the 2008-based projections published by DCLG in 2011. 

Other large-scale shifts in the mix of household types include far more couple-plus-other-adult households than expected. In part this is about younger people staying at home or sharing accommodation for longer. But that is not the whole story as changes are observed in all age groups. 

3. Tenure of housing demand and need

Applying past trends based mainly on household composition would suggest that some 68% of new households would be in the market sector (owner occupation or private market renting without benefits), but that housing to meet nearly one third of newly arising need would require some subsidy. 

4. Regional variations in housing demand and need

At the regional level, not far short of a quarter of all housing demand and need is likely to be concentrated in London, with over 60% in the four southern regions. But all regions require significant additional housing investment.

 

 

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